
Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicate 1880
Annual report and accounts 2024
29
2.
Use of critical accounting estimates and judgements in applying accounting policies
The preparation of the annual accounts requires the use of certain critical accounting estimates. It also requires
management to exercise its judgement in the process of applying the Syndicate’s accounting policies. The areas involving
a higher degree of judgement or complexity, or areas where assumptions and estimates are significant to the annual
accounts are those listed below.
Incurred
but
not
reported
claims (IBNR)
The estimation of claims IBNR is generally subject to a greater degree of uncertainty than the
estimation of the cost of settling claims already notified to the Syndicate, where more information
about the claim event is generally available. In calculating the estimated cost of unpaid claims the
Syndicate uses a variety of estimation techniques, generally based upon statistical analyses of
historical experience, which assumes that the development pattern of the current claims will be
consistent with past experience. Allowance is made, however, for changes or uncertainties which may
create distortions in the underlying statistics or which might cause the cost of unsettled claims to
increase or reduce when compared with the cost of previously settled claims including:
x
changes in processes which might accelerate or slow down the development and/or recording of
paid or incurred claims compared with the statistics from previous periods;
x
changes in the legal environment;
x
the effects of inflation;
x
changes in the mix of business;
x
the impact of large losses; and
x
movements in industry benchmarks.
A component of these estimation techniques is usually the estimation of the cost of notified but not
paid claims. In estimating the cost of these, regard is given to the claim circumstance as reported,
any information available from loss adjusters and information on the cost of settling claims with similar
characteristics in previous periods.
Large claims affecting each relevant business class are generally assessed separately, either measured
on a case-by-case basis or projected separately, in order to allow for the possible distorting effect of
the development and incidence of these large claims.
Where possible, multiple techniques are adopted in order to estimate the required level of provisions.
This assists in giving greater understanding of the trends inherent in the data being projected. The
projections given by the various methodologies also assist in setting the range of possible outcomes.
The most appropriate estimation technique is selected taking into account the characteristics of the
business class and the extent of the development of each accident year. The amount of salvage and
subrogation recoveries is separately identified and, where material, reported as an asset.
The Directors consider that the provisions for gross claims and related reinsurance recoveries are fairly
stated on the basis of the information currently available to them. However, the ultimate liability will
vary as a result of subsequent information and events and this may result in significant adjustments
to the amounts provided. Adjustments to the amounts of claims provisions established in prior years
are reflected in the report and accounts for the period in which the adjustments are made. The
methods used, and the estimates made, are reviewed regularly.
Provisions are calculated gross of any reinsurance recoveries. A separate estimate is made of the
amounts that will be recoverable from reinsurers based upon the gross provisions and having due
regard to collectability. An estimate of the future cost of indirect claims handling is calculated as a
percentage of the claims reserves held at the balance sheet date.
Property & Motor, Special Risks, Cyber & Enterprise Risk, Portfolio Solutions and
Reinsurance business
These business areas are predominantly ‘short tail’, as there is not a significant delay between the
occurrence of the claim and the claim being reported, with the exception of the liability risks written
in the
Cyber & Enterprise Risk and Property & Motor divisions
. For short tail risks, the costs of claims
notified to t
he Syndicate at the year-end date are estimated on a case-by-case
basis to reflect the
individual circumstances of each claim. The ultimate expected cost of claims is projected from this
data by reference to statistics which show how estimates of claims incurred in previous periods have
developed over time to reflect changes in the underlying estimates of the cost of notified claims and
late notifications. For liability risks, claims may not
become apparent for many years after the event
giving rise to the claim has happened, and there will typically be greater variation between initial
estimates and final outcomes compared with other classes.